Future Fandom Entry 6: The Olympics
The Height of Human Competition & The Ultimate Advertising Platform
Summary: Olympics Future Fandom
The Olympics is the preeminent international sporting event with a unique history that embodies the purity of sport and global cooperation—that’s the branding, at least. More accurately, the Olympics are a unique sports entertainment event that leverages underpaid athletes and national identities to create one of the foremost sports-based advertising platforms.
Assessing Future Olympic Fandom is primarily an exercise in balancing the Games’ historical brand strengths with its current structural brand-building weaknesses. The forecast for Olympic fandom is that it will be smaller but increasingly valuable. The Olympics can create a valuable audience by reaching a large collection of diverse sport-focused and demographic segments.
The key to Olympic Fandom is the Olympics and its partners (sponsors and media) making the right marketing decisions. The Games need to develop programming that allows it to develop fandom in off-years and across multiple sports. Programming that continually promotes and builds narratives around likely Olympic stars would strengthen the Olympics' role as a platform for reaching a collection of sports-focused global audiences. The Olympics needs to continually develop stars and compelling narratives across its core sports, like Track and Swimming, and opportunistically do the same in minor sports, like fencing and archery. It is a doable proposition as the Olympics enjoys massive support from media and marketing partners, but the Olympics will need vision and new structures to make it happen.
Olympic Fandom
It's an Olympic year, so this summer’s sports landscape will feature not just baseball players and NFL training camps but also sprinters, swimmers, and gymnasts. We may even get to witness some archers, skateboarders, and rowers. The diversity of sports is part of what makes the Olympics distinctive. Olympics are one of the most unique sports products as they possess ancient historical roots, a true global footprint, myriad sports, and significant modern challenges. Today’s article examines current Olympic fandom and evaluates the Olympics’ future fandom prospects.
The Olympics are an iconic global sports brand with significant strengths. They are broadly regarded as the preeminent multisport competition and are distinguished by featuring national teams. Having athletes participate via national teams provides strong built-in fandom for the Olympics. As athletes represent nations, the Olympics provides a natural and powerful basis for fandom. As Jerry Seinfeld noted “fans root for the clothes,” and national team uniforms quickly clarify an Olympic viewer’s rooting interest. The Olympics are also the preeminent competition for a broad range of individual sports like track, swimming, and gymnastics. While the existing fandoms for these sports may be relatively small, Olympic fandom is the collection of these smaller fanbases. The Olympics should be thought of as an umbrella brand that covers a wide variety of sports categories. These two traits – 1) the power of national fandom and 2) a wide range of events make the Olympics an attractive platform for brands. Global brands like Alibaba, Coca-Cola, Intel, and Panasonic operate as “partners” with the Olympic games, and these brands have a vested interest in the Game’s success.
However, the Olympics also have significant challenges. The core problem is that while they represent an exciting spectacle, they occur infrequently, and there is little “narrative” connection between subsequent games. The narratives for each event are largely created in the immediate run-up to the Games and then quickly fade from public view. In contrast, the NFL has ongoing storylines that keep fans interested around the calendar and across seasons.
In addition, while the Olympics has strength in individual sports, most individual sports have faded in prominence as team sports in powerful leagues have expanded their audiences and footprints. A great sprinter or gymnast can’t compete with NFL or NBA teams. Their careers are too short, and their platforms are too small.
The Olympics' schedule of only one competition every four years also leaves it vulnerable in the current media environment. Social media and algorithmic-driven fandom mean that the Olympics compete with other sports and entertainment options that operate continuously rather than once every four years. An Olympic athlete cannot hope to obtain the platform or following necessary to compete with athletes and teams that never leave the public stage.
In sum, the strength of the Olympics is that it has a significant brand and powerful marketing partners, while the problem is that they occur infrequently and with largely unknown athletes. The Olympics can be the most inspirational sports event, but with the massive marketing hype, the Olympics can often feel like little more than an advertising platform exploiting patriotism and a rich history. Like most other sports, the Olympics are at a crossroads. Technology and demographic forces are creating intense competition and new opportunities for fandom-oriented brands in sports, entertainment, and other sectors. This all leads us to our question: What does the future look like for Olympic Fandom?
The analysis of Future Fandom involves three steps. Roughly, the process assesses a fandom's overall foundational strength, evaluates it on several key fandom dimensions, and considers how key forces and decisions will influence the fandom's future. Step 1 examines the strength of the stories and narratives that are the foundation of Olympic Fandom. Step 2 benchmarks fandom along four critical dimensions using the WILD framework. Step 3 speculates how demographic, technology, and marketing trends will influence future Olympic fandom.
Olympic Fandom Benchmarking
Foundational Stories
The foundation of Olympic Fandom includes stories from antiquity and includes more than a century of modern history. From a U.S. perspective, the Olympics includes moments like Jesse Owens victories in the 1936 Summer Games, Cassius Clay (Muhammad Ali) debuting on the world stage in 1960, the U.S. sprinters’ podium protest in 1968, Bruce Jenner winning the Decathlon in 1976, Mary Lou Retton winning gymnastics gold in 1984, and Michael Phelps dominating swimming in multiple games. Olympics fans can undoubtedly name a dozen more examples of inspirational moments (Sugar Ray Leonard, Edwin Moses, the 1992 basketball Dream Team, Jackie Joyner-Kersee, Mark Spitz, Katie Ledecky, Simone Biles, Kerri Strug, etc.). Notably, this list is just the Summer Games and neglects perhaps the greatest U.S. Olympic moment, the “Miracle on Ice,” when the U.S. Hockey team defeated the heavily favored Soviet Union team.
These stories feature amazing athletic performances that represent the pinnacle of human performance. Some stories are about overcoming adversity. Kerri Strug vaulting with a broken ankle is a story of overcoming injury, while the “Miracle on Ice” is the ultimate underdog story. The Dream Team was a classic redemption story with Michael Jordan restoring American dominance in basketball. Several of the stories transcend sports. Jesse Owens's victories in the lead-up to WW2 and Tommie Smith and John Carlos’ podium protest in 1968 were impactful political moments.
The Olympic brand is supported by narratives that position the Games as aspirational and pure. The Olympics also has a history of amateurism and is portrayed as representing the purity of sport. The games are also described as a beacon for international cooperation as countries peacefully come together to honor the best in human performance. However, there have also been numerous scandals and controversies, including performance-enhancing drug usage (PEDs), amateurism rules that exploit athletes, and political boycotts.
Overall, the Olympics remains one of the strongest brands in sports. Awareness is exceptionally high, and national teams inspire strong fandom. The Olympics possesses a deep catalog of inspirational and important stories that provide many positive associations. However, many of the Olympics' most powerful moments are starting to feel dated. The Olympics may be losing the ability to create future stars and unifying stories. Katie Ledecky and Sha’Carri Richardson are phenomenal performers, but it seems doubtful that they will reach the level of cultural prominence of Bruce Jenner or Mary Lou Retton.
Characterizing Olympic Fandom
The second step in the analysis of Olympic Fandom delves into fandom's character and intensity using the WILD framework. The goal is to provide a rich description of how a specific fandom operates. This framework focuses on four distinct dimensions.
1) The W stands for “We” or “We Win.” The W dimension captures the degree to which fans identify as part of the fandom’s focal organization.
2) The I stands for “Influences.” Influences are the factors that create fandom.
3) The L stands for “Lifecycle.” Fandom lifecycles vary significantly across cultural categories. Cultural entities also have distinct lifecycles. For example, teams and colleges exist indefinitely, while a singer or actor is constrained by the realities of aging.
4) The D stands for “Display.” Display represents fans' propensity to display their fandom publicly.
W: We Win
The Olympics has an incredibly powerful “We” or identification aspect to its fandom. Competitions featuring national teams immediately allow viewers to feel an intense connection with USA athletes and teams. Watch the Olympics in a bar, and it is quickly apparent that the crowd (if they are paying attention) is rooting for the American female shot putter or the American middle-weight judo athlete, even though they barely know the athlete’s name. The ability to leverage national pride is a core aspect of Olympic fandom.
However, the Olympics face the challenge of having to introduce a new set of athletes each cycle. While a few stars participate in multiple games, a large number of athletes are introduced in each Olympiad. While we root instinctively for the national uniform, we can also quickly lose interest because we don’t know the stories or narratives of each athlete.
Additionally, something aspirational is needed for “We Win” fandom to be possible. The fan needs to want (or aspire) to be a part of the team or performance. Olympic competitions are also often aspirational as the Olympics features a wide variety of competitions that determine “the best in the world” in each sport. A regular gym goer can admire the strength displayed by weightlifters, an avid runner can be amazed by the Marathon champions, and a yoga enthusiast can marvel at the flexibility and skills of the gymnasts.
I: Influences
Olympic fandom is affected by multiple influences. The main fandom drivers are traditional media and marketing partnerships. The Olympics are prominently featured in media, and the Games boast active marketing partners that publicize and promote the event.
The Games' longevity and cultural prominence also facilitate familial transmission of fandom. The key to familial transmission is that the Olympics’ have a wealth of history and narratives that resonate with each generation. Baby Boomers remember Cassius Clay, Mark Spitz, Bruce Jenner, and Sugar Ray Leonard. Generation X experienced Carl Lewis, Mary Lou Retton, and The Dream Team. The Millennials had stars like Michael Phelps, Marion Jones, and Gabby Douglas. Gen Z’s legacy is still being formed, but Simone Biles and Katie Ledecky will be remembered for decades by Gen Z. There is also a history of non-sports events at the Olympics, like the 1968 Black Power Protests, the Soviet Boycott of the LA Games, and the Atlanta Centennial Park bombing that are shared memories within Generations. The question is to what extent these generational memories fuel intergenerational fandom transfers. I think it is limited. The parents may have fond memories of past Olympians, but there is little to connect a 2024 sprinter to a 1988 sprinter.
Critically, the Olympics tend to lack community influences. No permanent fandom discusses track and field year-round or wears Olympic apparel in off-years. Because the games select a new location for each edition, there is also a lack of a fanbase of season ticket holders or regular attendees. The Olympics are also relatively weak within social media. Social media is driven by star power, and the Olympics lacks stars and influencers that resonate with the younger audiences that dominate social media.
L: Lifecycle
Some of what makes the Olympics special also complicates the Olympics' ability to sustain fans. The Olympics are the exemplar of the destination sports spectacle. They are held every four years and take place in a different major city each cycle. The result is that the Olympics have unusual fan and product lifecycle structures.
In terms of the Olympic brand, while the Games are an enduring entity, they only hold the public’s interest for a short time. The modern Olympics have a century of history, but each new edition can feel like an expansion league because there is little continuity.
The Olympic product is created by national teams and individual athletes. The national teams are relatively permanent, but the athletes seldom have repeat performances. Again, the Olympic brand is enduring, but the content producers (the athletes) may have less than a two-week lifecycle. It’s a strange case of a timeless organization that creates multiple one-hit wonders every four years.
The Olympic Fan Lifecycle is also different from most sports because of the brevity of each Olympiad and the time between events. Furthermore, the fan lifecycle may be shifting in the current era. In previous eras, the Olympics were a major event that received widespread attention. It was easy to be a fan who tuned in every 4 years. Now, however, the sports calendar is vastly more crowded and it’s not clear if fans will continue to return every four years. The level of competition and the fragmented media environment may be disrupting the fandom lifecycle.
Overall, the Olympics benefits from long-term fandom, but because the time between events is so long, it needs to constantly re-acquire its fans. The fan acquisition and re-acquisition periods are very brief windows in contrast to the almost continual fan acquisition in some sports. Notably, the Olympics should be analyzed both in terms of the overall Olympic brand and within individual sports. The Olympics is a strong brand with widespread appeal. However, individual Olympic sports may grow or diminish over time. For example, the Olympic mainstay track and field seems to be fading from prominence due to a lack of strong performances and associated narratives. At the moment, the fan lifecycle for track exists for the length of the Olympics but not beyond. The Olympics needs to consider the strength of elements of its “product portfolio” and the overall brand.
D: Display
The Olympics has included a tradition of fandom displays that are concentrated on nationality and patriotism. The opening ceremony may include fans dressed in national colors and even face paint. However, this seems to be as much about the event as about projecting fandom. Olympic fans do not engage in displays at the level of European soccer tifos or American collegiate football. The lack of stadium displays is, at its heart, a result of the Games’ structure, where there is no consistent home team and home crowd.
While there is some display of Olympic fandom, it is weak compared to major American sports. There is very little Olympic clothing and almost none in non-Olympic years. The collectability of Olympic memorabilia also pales compared to that of NFL or NBA fans. The game’s 4-year cycle and the relative rarity of athletes who participate in multiple Olympics both place limits on fans’ motivations to express Olympic fandom. The lack of team jerseys in individual events (gymnastics, track, swimming) also limits fandom displays (there are no Michael Phelps jerseys). The Olympics are not designed to facilitate fandom displays.
Future Forces
The next question is, where does Olympic fandom go in the future? Does it strengthen? Does it strengthen for specific events or segments of viewers? Or does it weaken either across the board or in segments? Three major forces are relevant to predicting where a given fandom is going: Demographics, Technology, and Marketing. Demographics are about how the people and their established traditions are changing. Technology is primarily relevant in terms of how cultural products are distributed and consumed. Marketing is about the decisions of cultural entities interested in maximizing profits and growing fandom.
Demographics
The impact of demographic changes on Olympic fandom may be profound in several ways. For instance, immigration-fueled multiculturalism may weaken national identities, and weaker national identities may diminish the identification with national teams. One of the most dramatic U.S. Olympic successes was the 1980 hockey team's defeat of the Soviet Union. If the population of the U.S. changes so that there is less interest in hockey and less patriotism, such a victory may be less impactful.
Alternatively, immigrants may broaden their interest in the games if they watch their former nation’s teams and sports. Maintaining past traditions and preferences is increasingly possible through Internet-based feeds. These feeds allow media to cater to smaller audiences compared to network or cable feeds that predominately feature major U.S. teams and athletes. The likely outcome is that demographic shifts lessen fandom intensity (We Win) but perhaps grow casual fandom.
The two figures below highlight two additional aspects of U.S. Olympic Fandom. The first figure shows Olympic fandom across the four primary generational cohorts: Gen Z, Millennials, Gen X, and the Baby Boomers. This figure shows a disturbing trend for Olympics fandom, as fandom is weakest in the younger demographics. Olympic fandom peaks at 35.5% for Baby Boomers and then drops by about five percentage points in each younger generation and bottoms out at 18.5% for Gen Z. The implication is that Olympic fandom is strongest in the generations who experienced the Olympics as mass media events and weakest with younger generations who came of age with more media choices.
Another interesting aspect of Olympic fandom demographics is found when fandom is examined across gender segments. The figure below shows Olympic Fandom for male and female segments and also includes “general” Sports Fandom rates for the genders. Olympic fandom is similar for the male and female segments, with 30% of male respondents indicating they are fans compared to 25.2% of female respondents. While a higher percentage of men proclaim fandom, the 4.8% gap is much smaller than for many sports. In the general sports category, 56.5% of males are sports fans compared to 30.4% of females, for a 26-percentage point gap. Given current social trends, the Olympics' greater relative strength with the female segment is a positive. There is increased interest in women’s sports by both media and sponsors. The Olympics' strength with female viewers may attract helpful partnerships.
Overall, demographic trends are a net negative for Olympic fandom. Weakening national identities and patriotism may limit the power of the Olympics’ key branding advantage. If national identity becomes more transactional and less a source of social identity, passion for national teams is likely to wane. Furthermore, younger consumers who have come of age during a fragmented media environment have less enthusiasm. These weaknesses likely dominate the positive “potential” demographic factors such as growth in non-U.S. sports and relative strength with female consumers.
Technology
Technology innovation in terms of streaming and internet-based content is likely to have a mixed impact on Olympic fandom. A critical consequence of the shift away from broadcast and cable television is that the Olympics may become less of a unifying event. The Olympics were the center of attention in previous eras, with fewer content choices. Now, it is possible for people to be relatively unaware that the Olympics are happening.
However, modern platforms now allow for greater coverage of more sports and free fans to watch archived material. Therefore, technology should allow media organizations to provide greater access to a wider range of Olympic content. This should allow the Olympics to reach a significant audience by combining many micro audiences. This outcome is both positive and negative for the Olympic brand. Being able to serve micro-segments may grow the overall audience. Unfortunately, as the audience fragments within the Olympic games, there will be fewer opportunities for the types of mass-viewed events that create fandom-sustaining shared stories.
Technology changes are best viewed as a threat that provides uncertain opportunities. Without creative and powerful interventions, the Olympics will likely lose its position as a central event that receives massive free publicity. The potential opportunities are whether the Olympics are able to create narratives that create a coherent and compelling network of smaller products (events) under the Olympic umbrella.
Marketing
The Olympics highlights the importance of marketing and sponsorship more than any other sports product. Major sponsors of the 2024 Paris Games include Alibaba, Coca-Cola, Intel, Omega, Samsung, Toyota, and Visa. NBC holds the media rights, and content will be distributed via NBC-associated channels, such as the USA Network and the Peacock streaming service. The critical observation is that the media and the brand partners are all heavily invested in Olympic fandom. Brand sponsors will develop advertising campaigns that feature expected Olympic stars and NBC will develop promotional packages that create narratives around key athletes and teams.
The Olympics' position as a truly international sporting event with a substantial global audience makes it one of the most important advertising platforms in sports marketing. It also possesses positive associations (nations coming together for sports, elite athletic performances, etc.) that make it an especially attractive sponsorship option for brands. While there is increasing competition for global sports audiences (FIFA, F1, LIV Golf, etc.), the Olympics has a differentiated position as a collection of niche and mainstream sports. Interestingly, despite the strength of the Olympic brand and its differentiated position, the Olympics engages in relatively little marketing of itself, instead relying on media coverage and marketing partners. This passive approach is insufficient in the current environment. The critical marketing mission is to create compelling content in these niche sports so that audiences care. The Olympics needs “brand name” athletes in track, swimming, wrestling, and more. Overall, marketing is likely a strength for the Olympics as marketers and brands have significant incentives to help the Olympics maintain its fandom, but the Olympic committees need to become more active brand managers.
The Future
The Olympics is well positioned for the future in several respects and vulnerable in others. The strength of the Olympics is the power of its brand. To many people, the history and traditions of the Olympics mean that the games represent the pinnacle of sports in terms of performance and purity. Being able to wrap athletes in national colors gives the Olympics a powerful baseline fandom. The Olympics also possess global awareness. The Olympics also have a built-in strength from its ability to act as a marketing platform that helps brands and organizations reach a global audience.
The Olympics are also well suited to a fragmented media environment as the Games encompass a diverse range of individual and team sports. U.S. Olympic athletes have ranged from global celebrities like Michael Jordan and LeBron James to stars of niche sports like skateboarding and canoeing. The Olympics can leverage established stars like Kevin Durant or Megan Rapinoe while creating its own stars like Greg Louganis and Katie Ledecky. Collectively, the Olympics have a unique ability to appeal to multiple segments in the U.S. and across the globe.
However, these strengths are offset by significant weaknesses. The primary issue is the lack of continuity. Fandom is constrained because few athletes participate in multiple Olympics, and the “off-season” is (usually) four years. Any enthusiasm or passion an Olympiad creates is often forgotten after the Games end. The Olympics are one of the preeminent global sports brands, but they devote far less effort to brand building and maintenance than almost all other major sports properties.
The future of Olympic fandom is oddly both niche and global. The Olympics is the premier showcase for various niche sports like archery, skateboarding, and weightlifting. These niche sports are supplemented with mainstream sports like basketball and soccer that can attract mass audiences. The downside is that these mainstream sports competitions feel like exhibitions that do not compare to the FIFA World Cup or the NBA Finals, while the niche sports have low awareness and small followings.
The way forward for the Olympics is to develop programming that connects each edition of the Games. This is primarily a brand-building issue. The Olympics mainly relies on Olympians and media to create stories that are the foundation of Olympic fandom. The games need to find a way to build the Olympic brand and embrace “continual” narrative storytelling using models like F1’s Drive to Survive. This is a challenge as the individual athletes do not directly work for the Olympics, and there is significant uncertainty about which athletes will make future rosters. The IOC and national Olympic committees need to create new structures that create partnerships and brand-building opportunities with athletes.
The Olympics (in cooperation with National committees) needs to develop continuous media and brand development strategies. A consortium of the major Olympic sports, such as track, swimming, and gymnastics, should develop programming that shows the drama of the quest to make the games and develops broadly known stars. The Olympics' approach of a once-every-four-year spectacle both makes it special and places it at a structural disadvantage. By relying only on the few weeks of the formal games, the Olympics loses the ability to build fandom assets. New organizational models that support continuous fandom development will be required. The narrative of a solo athlete working towards an Olympic dream is inspiring but antiquated in a competitive and saturated media environment.
Another critical opportunity for the Olympics is its wide variety of events. The breadth and variety of Olympic events result in a collection of small but specialized audiences. The Olympics becomes the opposite of the NFL with its massive Super Bowl audience. The Super Bowl is a unifying event that attracts advertisers interested in reaching a mass audience. In contrast, the Olympics create a collection of specialized micro audiences. These audiences create opportunities for sophisticated sponsorship programs.