Update
The following essay is about the WNBA’s future prospects and was written in early June. My view hasn’t changed in the ensuing couple of weeks, but the WNBA produces endless drama, so any update is needed. The quick take is that if I were the NBA, I would be furious with the WNBA and women’s basketball‘s decision-making. Point 1, leaving Caitlin Clark off the Olympic team, is astonishingly short-sighted. Sports are an entertainment business, and Clark is the show. The notion that there are 12 more deserving women in basketball terms is debatable. Clark’s shooting range is better than any player on the team and her assist rate is better than the other shooting guards. I’m not entirely positive about Clark’s skill level, but leaving her off is narcissism. Point 2: the word narcissism in the last sentence might seem odd, but the vanity and jealousy of the WNBA players and establishment seem to be reaching unhealthy levels. It is obvious from the comments and cheap shots that Clark’s fame and financial opportunities have inspired massive jealousy. The cheap shots are a particular problem. Clark is being targeted (and not defended by her team or the league). Add in the entitlement behind the comments of players like Angel Reese and the notion that Clark’s fandom has racist overtones, and it is an astonishingly bad look for a league that is probably the most heavily subsidized league in the history of sports. If I were the NBA, I’d look at this as a marketing disaster and intervene aggressively.
Future Fandom: The WNBA
It's a unique time for sports as Caitlin Clark, a women's collegiate and now professional basketball player, is the breakout star of 2024 (so far). Her presence is ubiquitous; Caitlin Clark is there whether I turn on my television or scan social media. In contrast, I would have to search for coverage of Connor McDavid (NHL) or of any MLS player not named Lionel Messi. Her rise to prominence is a fascinating development in the sports world.
Caitlin Clark is a figure of immense interest. Her individual scoring records and leadership led the Iowa Hawkeyes to the NCAA tournament championship game, a game that set a record for the most viewed women’s basketball game. Her game, characterized by extreme long-range shooting and a history of trash-talking, is a spectacle in itself. Now, as the face of the WNBA, her new team, the Indianapolis Fever, is set to play 36 of its 40 games on national TV. Her influence on the WNBA's marketing efforts in the 2024 season is undeniable, and her impact on the league's success is a narrative worth following.
While Caitlin Clark may be the centerpiece of the WNBA's marketing efforts in the 2024 season, the league has already developed a rich tapestry of compelling narratives. The New York Liberty and the Las Vegas Aces are in the midst of a burgeoning rivalry. The Liberty’s headliners include Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart, while the Aces feature A’ja Wilson, Kelce Plum, and coach Becky Harmon. It’s a coastal rivalry reminiscent of the Lakers and Celtics. Sabrina was featured at the 2024 NBA All-Star weekend in a three-point shooting competition against Steph Curry. Becky Harmon, a former member of the Spurs coaching staff, is now paid more than a million dollars annually. Kelce Plum actually averaged more points per game her senior year in college than Clark did. The WNBA is brimming with great stories and massive hype as we head into the 2024 season.
There are also some positive economic signals. Three WNBA teams (Las Vegas Aces, Dallas Wings, and Atlanta Dream) have announced they have sold out seats allocated to season ticket buyers. However, there are also reports that the NBA has needed to continue massively subsidizing the WNBA this season. Overall, there remain substantial questions about the league's future prospects. Today’s article examines the WNBA’s Future Fandom.
Background
The WNBA was announced in 1996 by the NBA’s Board of Governors and began play with the slogan “We Got Next.” The WNBA also began with a promotional campaign that prominently featured Rebecca Lobo of the New York Liberty, Lisa Leslie of the Los Angeles Sparks, and Sheryl Swoopes of the Houston Comets. It was sophisticated, NBA-style star-focused marketing with massive media attention. At least massive compared to every other expansion league.
The fanfare accompanying the league’s launch is relevant when considering the league’s future. Lack of promotion and coverage is often cited as an explanation for the limited success of the WNBA and other women’s sports. The argument is that if women’s sports had been developed and marketed earlier, the women’s games would have stronger fan bases. It’s a compelling argument. A primary driver of fandom is exposure. A sport, musician, or movie will struggle to build fandom without exposure.
The problem with this argument is that it is inconsistent with reality. Even before the WNBA, Women’s basketball received substantial attention. Without any research, I can come up with names like Janie Fincher, Anne Meyers, Nancy Lieberman, and Cheryl Miller. Janie Fincher was the star guard for the Chicago Hustle of the Women’s Basketball League. Ann Meyers signed a contract in the 1970s with the NBA’s Indiana Pacers. Cheryl Miller has a long list of basketball accolades, and she was even featured in a joke on the sitcom Seinfeld that played off on how she was more famous than her brother Reggie. Janie Fincher is probably largely unknown, but I remember her as the Chicago Hustle’s star player. Fincher is important only because there was a league before the WNBA, and it got enough media attention that I know her name. I can also name many current and past WNBA players, such as Sue Bird, Diana Taurasi, Britney Griner, Candace Parker, Maya Moore, Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart (Stewie), and A’ja Wilson. While my first live WNBA game was an Atlanta Dream game about five years ago, and I have never watched a full game on television, somehow, I can name more WNBA and pre-WNBA players than American men's soccer players. I can name more active WNBA players than NHL players. The point is that the WNBA has been a beneficiary of the NBA and ESPN hype machines. The narrative that women’s basketball has been ignored isn’t true.
While the WNBA has received substantial hype, the league has struggled to develop fan support. The WNBA’s per-game attendance peaked at 10,800 in 1998 and declined to 6,600 in 2023. A graph of WNBA attendance shows a steady decline over time, with a slight upturn following the lost COVID season. The WNBA’s 2023 Championship series between the star-studded Aces and Liberty averaged only 728,000 viewers. While small, this was a 36% increase over the 2022 finals.
The WNBA's lack of economic success creates a publicity problem for the league by limiting the resources available to players. The 2024 salary cap for WNBA teams is just over 1.4 million per team. With a 12-woman roster size, the average WNBA salary is about $116 thousand versus the NBA’s $10.8 million. Caitlin Clark’s rookie salary of $76,000 was easy fodder for articles about pay equity. The WNBA has also received negative publicity because its players fly commercial rather than charter (note this is a fast-moving story as the WNBA has committed to private travel this season).
Fandom Foundations: Stories and Narratives
When assessing fandom, I focus on two related analyses. The first considers the strength of the fandom subculture. The foundation of all fandoms is shared stories and narratives. Fandoms share a common body of knowledge about their idolized team or entertainer. Subculture strength can also be considered by assessing the benefits provided by fandom. What value does a person experience by being a fan of something?
The WNBA has a mixed result in terms of the strength of shared stories. The WNBA has successfully created a set of narratives. Many current and past WNBA players have significant celebrity. Celebrity that often exceeds male athlete celebrity.
The question about the WNBA narratives is whether they are a creation of the fan community or of the marketing efforts. There are many (near) household names, but do fans fondly (and widely) remember championships or great plays? The WNBA is interesting as the foundation of shared stories and stars exists, but this foundation is waiting for a (substantial) fandom.
Future Fandom: WILD Framework
The second analysis leverages what I call the WILD framework. The WILD framework provides a structure for considering fandom behaviors across categories. These behaviors reveal how fandom provides psychological value to fans and economic value to the cultural entities.
The WILD system evaluates fandom based on 1) the propensity of fans to identify as part of the team (W or We), 2) the influences that drive fandom (I), 3) the lifecycle of fandom (L), and 4) how fans publicly display (D) their fandom. It’s a system that highlights key issues related to the intensity, motivations, length, and public displays of fandom.
My quick thoughts on how the WNBA fairs on each dimension follow:
We:
The WNBA has not had widespread success in creating the intense loyalty that makes fans feel they are almost part of the team. When an NFL or MLB team wins a title, we can expect to hear fans talking about how “we won.” The WNBA has not achieved this level of fandom, where local residents intensely identify with the team. The “We” part of fandom is related to the concept of social identity. While there are undoubtedly fans whose WNBA fandom is a key part of their social identities, this type of fandom remains rare compared to other sports leagues (NFL, college football, etc.).
While there are undoubtedly WNBA super fans who are intensely connected to their favorite teams, fans who (verbally) identify as members of the team are rare compared to other major professional leagues. WNBA teams are not generally viewed as members of the local communities to the degree that NBA, NFL, NHL, and MLB teams are. An advantage of college basketball teams is that they have a natural constituency of fans in the school’s alumni and student community. Developing in-market fans who feel like part of the team is challenging in the current era, where local media has a diminished role. There is also a question about whether most male sports fans will intensely identify with a women’s team. This reluctance is primarily due to the need for sports to be aspirational.
Influences:
The WNBA is over 25 years old, but this is a short time in the sports category where fandom is built over generations. Sports fandom is often transmitted through family or peers. The WNBA lacks the tradition and established fan bases to benefit from community influences like major men’s teams. The WNBA has also been disadvantaged as it came of age during a period when local media was retreating. However, the WNBA does have several advantages in the social media era. Social media allows micro-targeting and co-promotion by the NBA and the league's broadcast partners.
The WNBA’s primary fandom influences are national media and social media channels. The WNBA currently enjoys significant media support from marketing partners like the NBA, ESPN, and sponsoring brands. Social media platforms are also well suited to support women’s basketball to social media audiences that skew younger and female. It is also possible for broadcast partners to promote the WNBA on social channels (e.g., ESPN and ESPNW).
A potential issue when relying on national and social media is that editorial and algorithm decisions favor a small set of athletes and teams. Given the WNBA's focus on stars, this may be beneficial for the league in terms of national following but a limiting factor for local fandom. Caitlin Clark will enjoy national exposure, but even great players without hype will struggle to develop local fandom. As of mid-June 2024, Caitlin Clark has 2.5 million followers on Instagram, while Atlanta’s Rhyne Howard, the first pick in the 2022 draft, has less than 60 thousand followers.
The lack of local media and a tradition of familial WNBA fandom will inhibit the growth of local fandom. The relatively small size of local fanbases also limits positive real-world peer effects.
Lifecycle:
A distinctive element of sports is that fandom lifecycles can span entire lifetimes. The WNBA’s fandom lifecycle is unknown. We don’t have data on whether the WNBA can inspire loyalty from 8 to 80.
The league has existed since 1997; while 27 years is a long time in most categories, in sports, it is relatively short. It is possible that WNBA fandom will mimic men’s sports leagues, where fandom is often a lifelong affair. There may be people who have 20 years as WNBA fans, but this is the exception. At the macro level, WNBA fandom has tended to follow media attention. The massive media and marketing support at the league’s launch led to the league's highest attendance in its second season. The league’s upturn in attendance since Covid also seems to follow increased media and marketing. These observations of the link between fandom and media focus are relevant because fandom may be more transactional (entertainment and marketing-oriented) than relational.
The staying power of the league itself is also unknown. The league has never made a profit, and we do not know if the NBA will subsidize the league indefinitely. The NBA shows no sign of stopping and seems to be accelerating its support. I suspect that the NBA sees the WNBA as a possible global basketball play. Political forces have also led to greater sponsor support for the WNBA. Will subsidies and sponsorships be enough to keep the WNBA viable?
Display:
The public display of allegiance is a critical aspect of fandom. Sports fans often dress in team apparel and decorate homes and offices with team memorabilia. Super Fans will paint faces and turn game attendance into an opportunity for cosplay. When I teach students in my sports classes at Emory University, I frequently see Braves, Atlanta United, and other sports brands represented on students' clothing but not WNBA brands. Driving around Atlanta, you can’t help but see many proud displays of University of Georgia fandom. Sightings of WNBA logos have been extremely rare in my personal experience.
The WNBA fandom has not developed a strong tradition of display. At the crowd level, unlike college football or European soccer, WNBA arenas are not known for crowd displays. There is also a lack of tradition for fans to wear team merchandise. There is also a lack of a collectors culture in the WNBA as the league is not known for collectibles and memorabilia. However, there are signs that the Display Propensity is increasing, such as the sell-out of Caitlin Clark’s Indiana Fever jersey.
Summary
Working through the various dimensions of fandom paints a mixed but slightly negative picture of the WNBA. The league has the stories and history that could provide a foundation for a robust fandom, but actual fandom shows weaknesses in almost all dimensions. The lack of conversion of well-known stories into a significant fandom suggests there is a fundamental weakness in the WNBA product. Marketing prowess, media enthusiasm, and sponsor support have made the WNBA a topic of conversation. However, the WNBA lacks substantial numbers of fans who intensely identify with the teams, organic (non-commercial) fan building influences, or a tradition of outward display of fandom.
Next Generation Fandom Survey
The qualitative analysis of WNBA fandom suggests that the WNBA has a significant challenge ahead. On the positive side, the league has established narratives, and the modern distributed media environment is an advantage for the league. The challenges include weaknesses in connections to local markets and a lack of community and family-based fandom transmission.
The data on existing fandom also suggests challenges. For the last several years, I have conducted a survey on sports and cultural fandom that I call the Next Generation Fandom Survey. This is a national survey of more than 2000 (representative) Americans. Figure 1 shows fandom levels for Men’s and Women’s basketball for each gender. For Men’s basketball, 43% of males indicate they are fans compared to 20% of females. For Women’s basketball, 16% of males are fans compared to 15% of females. Survey data on fandom should be interpreted with care. It is relatively easy for a person to say they are a fan, even if the fandom is casual. While 16% of men may indicate they are fans of women’s basketball, it is not clear how many would buy a ticket to a WNBA game. The survey results are mainly useful as comparisons.
While similar percentages of men and women indicate they are fans of women’s basketball, It is unknown how much growth is possible in either segment. Perhaps the ceiling for the women’s game is the 20% fandom rate that women have for Men’s basketball. There is also a question about what surveyed fandom means. It is easy for a male sports fan to say they are fans of Caitlin Clark or women’s basketball, but when it comes to choices of watching or attending, will these fans ever choose the WNBA?
A difficulty in assessing any women’s sports league is that the discussion quickly includes political or social justice elements. There is already brewing racial controversy in the WNBA as commentators have expressed the opinion that Caitlin Clark has only been embraced because she is a straight white woman. Political and social justice issues can complicate data collection and lead to misleading signals of market strength. If an expressed lack of interest in the WNBA is met with an accusation of misogyny, surveys may overstate interest in the WNBA.
Likewise, the current social environment may obscure some important fundamentals. One of the more bizarre parts of the WNBA story is the frequent comparisons between the men’s and women’s games. I’ve seen media figures suggest that Caitlin Clark could be an NBA player and score 6-8 points per game. Years ago, Britney Griner claimed that she could beat Demarcus Cousins in a one-on-one matchup. Comparisons between the men’s and women’s games are foolish on multiple levels. It is stunning that it needs to be said, but Caitlin Clark and Britney Griner are nowhere near NBA-level talents. However, the notion that the men’s game is a better product is problematic in today’s social climate. While a discussion of the differences between men’s and women’s games feels vaguely inappropriate, ignoring physical differences in sports products in deference to social sensibilities is a critical mistake when evaluating the future of women’s leagues.
For men, a core element of sports fandom is that professional athletes are aspirational. There is no evidence that male sports fans will ever intensely identify with female teams. For the female segment, there are also significant questions. The Next Generation Fandom Survey finds that females are about half as likely to be fans of men’s leagues as men and slightly less interested in female leagues. This is a sports issue, however, as women are not averse to being fans of entertainment and music. The counterpoint to the preceding is that women’s interest in sports has been limited by social norms and sexism.
The notion that fandom can be significantly increased in either segment is speculative. The success of the women’s NCAA tournament is an interesting data point, but we lack examples of sustained interest in women’s team sports.
Figure 2 shows fandom rates for Men’s and Women’s basketball among Gen Z, Millennials, Gen X, and Baby Boomers. This figure suggests more strength for basketball, in general, and women’s basketball, in particular, for younger generations. For the two younger generations, Women’s basketball has a fandom rate of about 19.5% compared to 12.5% for the two older generations. A positive interpretation of this data is that younger people are more interested in women’s basketball. However, the gap between Men’s and Women’s basketball is stunningly similar at about 15% for all generations. This consistent gap suggests that it may be basketball fandom rather than women’s sports fandom driving the higher fandom rates. This is unsurprising as NBA fandom has long tended to skew younger.
Predictions
My prediction is that we will see slightly stronger interest in the WNBA over the next few years. The league will peak in 2024 before settling to a new equilibrium that is moderately higher than the pre-COVID levels. This projection assumes that current media and marketing support will not persist.
The WNBA has developed compelling storylines that are consistent with societal trends. The WNBA’s strength will be predominately based on national television viewership rather than attendance. The WNBA’s 2023 championship game (game 4) peaked at 1.3 million viewers and averaged almost 900,000. While this was hailed as a success, this viewership represents only about .3% of the American population. With attractive narratives, aggressive social media marketing, and a friendly media environment the WNBA should be able to approach the viewership of major leagues like the NHL and MLS (2 million to 5 million viewers). Early season WNBA matchups featuring Caitlin Clark have drawn slightly more than two million viewers.
Viewership of 2 million is approximately .6% of the US population. It’s a small percentage of the population, but in an era of fragmenting media, it is enough to attract a meaningful media rights deal and lucrative sponsorships. These marketing and media trends are critical as they may push the WNBA into profitability. Any discussion of the WNBA is incomplete without acknowledging that the league has the support and marketing expertise of the NBA in its corner. If the WNBA becomes even marginally profitable, the league becomes a very powerful asset for the NBA as it becomes a strong foothold into the global female sports market. Despite its challenges, the WNBA is the strongest female sports league in the world.
The dangers for the WNBA include uncertainty about Caitlin’s Clark's stardom, and political risks. The WNBA and the media are heavily invested in Clark as the face of women’s basketball. Clark’s stardom has already created a backlash from established NBA players. There is also the matter of how Clark’s game translates to the professional level. Kelsey Plum averaged MORE points per game as a senior in college but only 8.5 points per game as a WNBA rookie. Clark stardom is probably more tenuous than most suspect. She is a skilled shooter and passer but not a physically dominant athlete. If Clark averages 16 points a game and her team misses the playoffs, will the excitement around her and the WNBA fade?
The impact on other women’s sports will likely be negative. The WNBA grabs an inordinate number of headlines compared to other women’s leagues like the PVF and NWSL. Given the WNBA’s marketing advantages, other women’s sports may struggle to gain attention outside of the Women’s FIFA tournament.
WNBA fandom reminds me of the often-misstated quote from the film The Field of Dreams, “If you build it, he will come.” The quote is often misstated as “if you build it, they will come.” The WNBA has a legacy of stories, sophisticated marketing, and social media, and a new star with massive celebrity. The foundation is built but will they come? And more critically, will they stay? I think they will, but to a limited extent. My projection is that we will see the WNBA grow into a successful niche sport with championship TV ratings on par with the MLS and slightly below the NHL. This will likely yield a more lucrative media rights deal. Attendance growth will be more difficult as local fandom is increasingly difficult to build. Partnerships and revenues are probably in a holding pattern as the influx of sponsors waits to assess ROIs. Profitability will remain tenuous as greater visibility leads to increased player wages and operating expenses (non-commercial flights, etc.).